Chaos Orb vs. Annulment Orb: A Definitive Jewel Crafting Analysis for POE2

The Orb of Annulment's role in the "Dawn of the Hunt" league has sparked one of Path of Exile 2's oldest crafting debates: when should you use a Chaos Orb, and when should you risk an Annulment? Many guides offer opinions, but few provide a data-driven framework for making the decision.

This is a deep-dive, definitive comparison between two core crafting strategies—the Chaos Orb Gamble vs. the Annulment Orb + Targeted Craft—for a specific, common scenario in jewel crafting. This guide incorporates data from a detailed analysis to help you decide which path to take based on two critical factors: your risk profile and your resource priorities.

Prerequisites & Cost Assumptions

To make a fair comparison, our analysis is based on the following scenario and market costs:

  • Starting Item: A jewel with [1x Fractured Mod, 1x Good Mod (A), 1x Bad Mod (B)]. Our goal is to remove Mod B and add another good mod.
  • Chaos Orb Cost: 0.05 Divine Orb per use.
  • Annulment Orb Cost: 0.1 Divine Orb per use.
  • Targeted Craft Cost: A deterministic craft (like using a specific essence or Aisling) that adds a desired mod type for 0.015 Divine Orb.
  • Deterministic "Insurance" Cost: We assume a baseline guaranteed action (like a "Remove-Non-X, Add-X" craft) costs 0.15 Divine Orb. This is our benchmark for a "safe" but expensive option.

Core Choice #1: Your Risk Profile – Are You Buying Insurance or Playing the Odds?

This decision depends on whether you hate budget overruns more than you love a good bargain.

The Annulment Path (Representing Certainty): The Risk-Averse Choice

  • The Logic: This path is about mitigating risk and seeking certainty. In our comparative scenario, the "guaranteed fix" costs 0.15 Divine to safely resolve the item.
  • Why Choose This?: A risk-averse crafter takes this deal every time. Their primary concern is predictability. They are willing to pay a fixed, potentially higher "insurance premium" to completely eliminate the tail-end risk of a craft going horribly over budget. They plan for the worst-case scenario to ensure the project remains under control.

The Chaos Orb Path: The Risk-Taker's Choice

  • The Logic: This path is about trusting the law of large numbers and positive expected value. It trades certainty for higher potential returns over many attempts.
  • Why Choose This?: Our calculations showed that when using Chaos Orbs:
    • There is a 75% chance you will spend less (0.05 or 0.10 Divine) than the "guaranteed" 0.15 Divine insurance price.
    • However, you must accept a 12.5% chance that you will spend more than the insurance price due to bad luck.
  • A risk-tolerant crafter chooses the Chaos Orb because they know its Expected Value (~0.10 Divine) is mathematically lower in the long run. They are comfortable with a few unlucky outcomes because they know that over hundreds of crafts, this strategy is the most currency-efficient.

Core Choice #2: Your Resource Priority – Is Success Rate More Valuable Than Currency?

For this part of the analysis, we introduced more realistic probabilities to compare the final outcome. Let's assume the probability of hitting our desired PREfix is 7%, while the probability of hitting a desired SUFfix is 2%.

The Annulment + Targeted Craft Path: The Winner of Success Rate & Time

  • The Logic: This method leverages a higher cost per attempt to gain a higher probability of success per attempt. Because its "add" step is a targeted "add prefix" action, it can fully leverage the 7% success rate without being diluted.
  • Why Choose This?: Our final model shows this path's Overall Success Rate is ~6.54%. This means you are nearly twice as likely to actually finish the item before it's bricked. If you are crafting a one-of-a-kind, "once-in-a-lifetime" god-tier item, success rate is the only metric that matters. This path is, in essence, using currency to buy time and a greater chance at victory.

The Chaos Orb Path: The King of Cost-Efficiency

  • The Logic: This method maximizes the number of "lottery tickets" you can buy for every Divine Orb spent, making it the undisputed champion of capital efficiency.
  • Why Choose This?:
    • Its Overall Success Rate is only ~3.38%. This is because the Chaos Orb's "add" step can add a prefix OR a suffix, effectively diluting the 7% chance by half.
    • However, its Expected Cost to reach a conclusion (win or lose) is just ~0.097 Divine, which is less than half the cost of the Annulment path (~0.201 Divine).
  • This is a stunning trade-off: you accept half the success rate in exchange for half the average cost. If you are a commercial crafter running dozens of projects simultaneously, minimizing the average cost per project to maximize currency velocity is your primary goal. You tolerate a higher failure rate on individual items because your strategy is to leverage cost-efficiency across your entire portfolio.

Conclusion

So, should you use a Chaos Orb or an Annulment Orb when crafting jewels? As our analysis shows, there is no single "best" answer—only the best answer for you.

Here’s the final breakdown:

  • The Chaos Orb Path is for the risk-tolerant, budget-conscious, or bulk crafter. It offers a 75% chance to be cheaper and has half the average cost, but you must accept a lower success rate and the small chance of a major currency sink.
  • The Annulment Orb + Targeted Craft Path is for the risk-averse crafter or those working on a single, priceless project. It effectively doubles your chance of success and saves you crafting time, but you pay a premium for that certainty and efficiency.

We hope this deep dive helps you craft with more confidence and purpose. Happy crafting, exile!